This is Coronavirus 411, the latest COVID-19 info and new hotspots for September 23rd, 2021.

A story for you optimists out there. An analysis by a consortium of researchers advising the CDC indicates the Delta surge looks like it’s peaking. Which means cases and deaths should decline steadily now through the spring as long as there’s not a big winter surge. The analysis was made by combining nine different mathematical models from different research groups.

The optimistic model for the next six months also assumes a new and dangerous variant won’t take hold. But the R.1 variant, which originated in Japan, has been identified at a Kentucky nursing home where it infected 45 residents and workers, many of whom were vaccinated. It has mutations that can improve “transmission, replication, and immune suppression.”

The FDA gave the okay for extra shots of Pfizer vaccine for seniors and others at high risk. And it’s a little amazing the FDA is functioning as well as it is, because there is no permanent head of that agency. 10 months after the election, the current administration has yet to name one. Public health experts are baffled why this would be the case given the situation we’re in and insiders say staff at the agency is demoralized.

The kids are in school, but when it comes to teachers and school staff, there are desperate shortages nationwide. Notes are going to parents saying, “we’re hiring,” Principals are filling in as crossing guards, and of course, schools are moving back to online learning. COVID-19 has triggered a spike in retirements and resignations, for any number of reasons.

Maybe those teachers are home drinking. Even though we hear so many people kvetching about the possible temporary side effects of getting vaccinated, they don’t seem worried about pickling their bodies with alcohol. A new Harris Poll shows nearly 1 in 5 Americans is consuming an unhealthy amount of alcohol. If you don’t know if you’re a heavy drinker or not, it’s defined as two heavy drinking days in a single week at least twice in the previous 30 days. And a "heavy drinking day" is four or more drinks for women and five or more drinks for men.

In the United States cases were down 12%, deaths are up 36%, and hospitalizations are down 9% over 14 days. The 7-day average of new cases has been trending down since September 13.

There are 9,757,275 active cases in the United States.

With not all states reporting daily numbers, the five states with the greatest increase in per capita hospitalizations over 14 days are Vermont at 52%, Idaho 34%, Montana 33%, Ohio 31%, and West Virginia 28%.

The top 10 counties with the highest number of recent cases per capita according to The New York Times: Andrews, TX. Russell, KY. Knox, KY. Perry, KY. Lewis, WV. Braxton, WV. Whitley, KY. McCreary, KY. Rockcastle, KY. And Scott, TN.

There have been at least 681,111 deaths in the U.S. recorded as Covid-related.

The top 3 vaccinating states by percentage of population that’s been fully vaccinated: Vermont unchanged at 69%, Connecticut at 68%, and Maine at 67.8%. The bottom 3 vaccinating states are West Virginia unchanged at 40.2%, Wyoming at 40.8%, and Idaho at 40.9%. The percentage of the U.S. that’s been fully vaccinated is 54.8%.

The 5 countries with the largest recent 24-hour increase in the number of fully vaccinated people: Kosovo up 3%, and Brazil, Australia, Oceana, and New Zealand 2%.

Globally, cases were down 16% and deaths were down 13% over 14 days, with the 7-day average trending down since August 27.

There are 18,574,248 active cases around the world.

The five countries with the most new cases: The United States 133,620. Brazil 36,473. The U.K. 34,460. India 31,957. And Turkey 28,168.

There have now been at least...

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